Who Will Win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award This Season?
2025-11-04 19:11
2025-11-04 19:11
As I sip my morning coffee and scroll through the latest NBA highlights, one question keeps popping up in every basketball forum and sports podcast: Who will win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award this season? I've been following the league for over a decade, and this year's rookie class has me more excited than any since the 2018 draft that gave us Luka and Trae.
What makes this rookie class so special compared to recent years?
Having watched these kids develop through college and overseas leagues, I can confidently say this group has a unique blend of ready-to-play talent and long-term potential. Last season we saw Paolo Banchero put up 20 points per game from day one, but this year's crop features at least 5-6 players who could realistically average 15+ points. What's different this time? It looks like the pressure is now a thing of the past for these youngsters. They're playing with a freedom we haven't seen in years - maybe because the modern NBA offense favors skilled rookies more than ever before.
Which rookies have separated themselves in the early race?
Let me break down my top three contenders. First, there's Victor Wembanyama - the 7'4" French phenom who's already blocking 2.8 shots per game while showing three-point range. Then you've got Chet Holmgren, who's shooting an incredible 52% from the field while anchoring OKC's defense. And don't sleep on Brandin Podziemski - the Warriors guard is quietly putting up 12 points and 6 assists while shooting 40% from deep. The beauty is that it looks like the pressure is now a thing of the past for all three - they're just playing basketball rather than worrying about expectations.
How much does team success factor into the ROY voting?
In my experience covering previous races, team success matters more than people admit. Of the last 10 ROY winners, 8 came from teams that made at least the play-in tournament. That's why I'm keeping my eye on Chet Holmgren - his Thunder are currently sitting in the top 4 of the Western Conference. The narrative writes itself: contributing to a winning team often trumps empty stats on a bad squad. And honestly, it looks like the pressure is now a thing of the past for Chet specifically because he's fitting so seamlessly into their system.
What about the "rookie wall" - will it affect the race?
Here's something most analysts won't tell you: the rookie wall is mostly mental. These kids have never played an 82-game season against grown men, and around game 45-50, many hit a wall. But watching this group, I'm noticing something different. It looks like the pressure is now a thing of the past because coaches are managing minutes smarter. Take Victor Wembanyama - Popovich is carefully limiting him to around 28 minutes per game, keeping him fresh for the stretch run.
Could a dark horse candidate emerge after All-Star break?
Absolutely. Remember Malcolm Brogdon winning ROY as the 36th pick? It happens. My dark horse is Jaime Jaquez Jr. in Miami. The Heat system turns rookies into contributors faster than any organization, and Jaquez is already getting crunch-time minutes. He's averaging 14 points on 52% shooting in his last 10 games. The beauty of Miami's culture is that it looks like the pressure is now a thing of the past for their rookies - they're just expected to execute within the system.
How will the final month of the season determine Who Will Win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award This Season?
This is where narratives crystallize. If Wembanyama leads the Spurs on a surprising late-season run or Holmgren helps OKC secure a top-3 seed, that could seal it. Personally, I'm watching March closely - that's when national TV games increase and voters form their final opinions. The great news for all these rookies? It looks like the pressure is now a thing of the past because they've already proven they belong.
So, Who Will Win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award This Season?
If you're forcing me to pick today, I'm leaning Holmgren by a hair over Wembanyama. His efficiency numbers are historic for a rookie - 52% FG, 39% from three, 82% FT while playing elite defense on a winning team. But ask me again next week and I might change my mind - that's how close this race is. The best part? All these kids are proving that it looks like the pressure is now a thing of the past for this incredible rookie class.